The Soviet Union and the Iran-Iraq War – 1980 SNIE on ‘SovietInterest, Policies, and Prospects with Respect to the Iran-Iraq War

Author: Ted Kirkpatrick (OSINT Analyst)

(MA Intelligence and International Security / BA French and Russian)

Abstract

In this essay, I revisit the 1980 Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE) on Soviet interests in the Iran-Iraq War to explore how Cold War anxieties and institutional biases shaped U.S. intelligence assessments. While the SNIE viewed the Soviet Union as eager to expand its influence in Tehran, I argue that Moscow’s actual approach was far more cautious and constrained. Drawing on primary sources and academic literature, I suggest that these misreadings reflected deeper structural and cognitive challenges within the intelligence community at the time. By examining this case, I hope to shed light on the complexities of interpreting adversary intentions and highlight the importance of critical self-reflection in intelligence analysis today.

Kirkpatrick, Ted - Gordian Associates - 1980 SNIE Soviet Position in Iran-Iraq War Analysi.

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